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Total production in coffee year 2020/21 estimated to rise by 0.5 percent -ICO

Global coffee production in coffee year 2020/21 is expected to up by 0.5 percent to 169.63 million bags, with Arabica production increasing by 2.6% to 99.42 million bags, says the International Coffee Organisation in its latest report.
 The report produced for the month of April 2021, says the production of Robusta coffee is expected to decrease by 2.4% to 70.21 million bags. At the regional level, a slight decrease of 0.8% is expected for Africa at 18.54 million bags in coffee year 2020/21 in comparison with 18.68 million bags in the previous coffee year.

“Production for Asia & Oceania is forecast to fall by 1.1% from 49.48 million bags in 2019/20 to 48.95 million in 2020/21. Production for Mexico & Central America is expected to decrease slightly by 0.1% at 19.54 million bags against 19.56 million bags in coffee year 2019/20. An increase of 1.8% in production is expected from South America at 82.59 million bags, compared with 81.12 million bags in 2019/20.”

Meanwhile, ICO says global exports in March 2021 totalled 11.94 million bags, compared with 11.66 million bags in March 2020. Exports in the first half of coffee year 2020/21 reached 65.4 million bags, representing an increase of 3.5% compared to 63.2 million bags during the same period in coffee year 2019/20. “Cumulative exports of Colombian Milds over the first half of coffee year 2020/21 increased by 2.6% to 7.75 million bags, while exports of Other Milds decreased by 8.3% to 10.4 million bags from 11.35 million bags in 2019/20. Total exports of Brazilian Naturals increased by 19.2% to 23.66 million bags, compared to 19.84 million bags recorded over the first six months of coffee year 2019/20. Shipments of Robusta over half of coffee year 2020/21 fell by 3.5% to 23.59 million bags.”

The increase in exports was primarily driven by shipments of green coffee, which rose 4.3% to 59.32 million bags in the first half of the coffee year compared to the same period in the previous year. Exports of roasted coffee fell by an estimated 4% to 336,172 bags, while those of soluble coffee fell by 3.4% to 5.72 million bags.

In regional terms, the report says, exports of all forms of coffee from Africa in the first half of coffee year 2020/21 decreased by 8.9% to 5.96 million bags, as shipments from Ethiopia, Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya declined by 28.5%, 49% and 9.5% respectively. Uganda, the largest regional exporter, has recorded an increase of 11.5% to 2.8 million bags. “It should be noted that in March 2021, exports of Uganda totalled 572,839 bags, its highest volume of exports in a single month, generating over USD 53.55 million in export value.”

World coffee consumption is projected to increase by 1.3% to 166.34 million bags in 2020/21 compared to 164.20 million bags for coffee year 2019/20. The negative impact on coffee consumption experienced during coffee year 2019/20 with the outbreak of the covid-19 pandemic is fading as consumption is regaining its normal trend. Consumption in importing countries and domestic consumption in exporting countries is expected to grow by 1.3% and 1.4% respectively. Consumption in Africa is expected to increase by 1.8% at 12.24 million bags.

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